A jumping index of jumping stocks? An MCMC analysis of continuous-time models for individual stocks

This paper examines continuous-time models for the S&P 100 index and its constituents. We find that the jump process of the typical stock looks significantly different than that of the index. Most importantly, the average size of a jump in the returns of the typical stock is positive, while it is negative for the index. Furthermore, the estimates of the parameters for the stochastic processes exhibit pronounced heterogeneity in the cross-section of stocks. For example, we find that the jump size in returns decreases for larger companies. Finally, we find that a jump in the index is not necessarily accompanied by a large number of contemporaneous jumps in its constituent’s stocks. Indeed, we find index jump days on which only one index constituent also jumps. As a consequence, we show that index jumps can be classified as induced by either synchronous price movements of individual stocks or macroeconomic events.

Netspar, Network for Studies on Pensions, Aging and Retirement, is een denktank en kennisnetwerk. Netspar is gericht op een goed geïnformeerd pensioendebat.

MEER OVER NETSPAR


Missie en strategie           •           Netwerk           •           Organisatie           •          Podcasts
Board Brief            •            Werkprogramma 2023-2027           •           Onderzoeksagenda

OVER NETSPAR

Onze partners

B20180327_logo_PGB-Pensioendiensten_grijswaarden
B20160708_aegon
B20160708_maastricht university
B20160708_B20160615_Stichting-van-de-Arbeid-logo
B20160708_radboud
Bekijk al onze partners