Macroeconomic regimes

We estimate a New-Keynesian macro model accommodating regime-switching behavior in monetary policy and in macro shocks. Key to our estimation strategy is the use of survey-based expectations for inflation and output. We identify accommodating monetary policybefore 1980, with activist monetary policy prevailing most but not 100% of the time there-after. Systematic monetary policy switched to the activist regime in the 2000-2005 period through an aggressive lowering of interest rates. Discretionary policy spells became less frequent since 1985, but the Volcker period is identified as a discretionary period. Output shocks shift to the low volatility regime around 1985 whereas inflation shocks do so only around 1990, suggesting active monetary policy may have played role in anchoring inflation expectations. Shocks and policy regimes jointly drive the volatility of the macro variables.We provide new estimates of the onset and demise of the Great Moderation and the relative role played by macro-shocks and monetary policy.

Netspar, Network for Studies on Pensions, Aging and Retirement, is a thinktank and knowledge network. Netspar is dedicated to promoting a wider understanding of the economic and social implications of pensions, aging and retirement in the Netherlands and Europe.

MORE ABOUT NETSPAR


Mission en strategy           •           Network           •           Organisation           •          Magazine
Board Brief            •            Actionplan 2023-2027           •           Researchagenda

ABOUT NETSPAR

Our partners

B20210618_Achmea_logo_grey
B20160708_universiteit utrecht
B20160708_erasmus
B20160708_ministeries
B20210909_SPMS_logo download greyscale smaller
View all partners