Quantifying longevity risk

  • Gintautas Jakstas Gintautas Jakstas

Longevity risk is the risk that people on average live longer than expected; it is the negative effect of changes in mortality rates on the risk measures of companies involved in pensions.According to Eurostat, in the Baltic countries: Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, the degree of population (65+) living at risk of poverty or social exclusion is above the European Union average, which implies that changes in the pension system have to be done. One of the most important parts in designing pension system is the retirement age which is based on life expectancy. In this Thesis the life expectancy analysis and predictions are performed to theBaltic countries: Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. The Lee-Carter and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd models are used to derive projections. We found that Lithuania and Latvia show very similar patterns of mortality, except, it seems that Lithuania faces more difficulties on the way to male mortality reduction. Projected life expectancy in Estonia is significantly higher than in the other two Baltic countries.

Netspar, Network for Studies on Pensions, Aging and Retirement, is een denktank en kennisnetwerk. Netspar is gericht op een goed geïnformeerd pensioendebat.

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