This paper utilizes data obtained for the health check on the SME
portfolios of Dutch banks by the DNB to estimate a discrete hazard
model to predict the default of a SME loan in the Netherlands.
Furthermore, this paper uses the macroeconomic scenario of the EBA
stress test of 2014 to obtain the macroeconomic impact on SME
defaults.
We found that, ceteris paribus, an increase by 1.3% point in the
interest rate with a GDP growth of 1.5% will translate in an increase
the probability of defaults with 13%.
Furthermore, this will lead to increase from 1.13% to 1.28% in
expected losses expressed in total credit.
Moreover, the effect of this macroeconomic scenario on SME is smaller
compared with the impact on corporates.
Therefore, we conclude that Dutch SME are less dependent on the
macroeconomic environment than corporates.

Netspar, Network for Studies on Pensions, Aging and Retirement, is een denktank en kennisnetwerk. Netspar is gericht op een goed geïnformeerd pensioendebat.

MEER OVER NETSPAR


Missie en strategie           •           Netwerk           •           Organisatie           •          Podcasts
Board Brief            •            Werkprogramma 2019-2023           •           Onderzoeksagenda

OVER NETSPAR

Onze partners

B20180327_logo_PGB-Pensioendiensten_grijswaarden
B20160708_aegon
B20160708_maastricht university
B20160708_B20160615_Stichting-van-de-Arbeid-logo
B20160708_radboud
Bekijk al onze partners