The aim of this thesis is to project which provinces‘ health care capacity will be insufficient to keep up with the aging process. This is done via an excel model for which the regional demographic 6 projection from CBS and The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (henceforth PBL) is the most important input for the model. Capacity is projected for primary and secondary care consumption and production. In order to get more insight in the sort of health care consumption, there is a specific focus on diabetes mellitus. Diabetes is the most prevailing disease in the Netherlands and its importance is only expected to grow (Van der Lucht and Polder, 2011).

The main research question is: “How does aging affect health care capacity for diabetes services on a regional level?”