The impact of demographic uncertainty on public finances in the Netherlands

The expected increase in the ratio of retirees to workers that is due to population ageing is sure to increase pressure on public finances and the Dutch economy in the coming decades.However, because of the uncertainty regarding future demographic developments, the exact extent of the problem is unknown. This paper presents stochastic simulations, i.e. simulations that combine the CGE model of the Dutch economy GAMMA with stochastic populationprojections.