Predictability-robust dynamic portfolio choice

Dynamic portfolio choice crucially depends on the predictability of returns. In contrast to its importance, confirmation of the existence of predictability is lacking. We consider a robust investor who arms herself against the adverse effects of uncertainty about predictability but also exploits the benefits of predictability insofar it is significant. We show that robust dynamic portfolio choice does not exhibit the extreme risky investment of traditional and Bayesian portfolios, is less volatile and features intertemporal hedging demands. We also show the worst plausible form of predictability for the robust portfolio result. This worst case depends on the horizon, initial state, the portfolio, and the relations among the predictor variables. For long term investment the worst case features a low long term average of the predictorvariable and a high exposure to this low average.

Netspar, Network for Studies on Pensions, Aging and Retirement, is a thinktank and knowledge network. Netspar is dedicated to promoting a wider understanding of the economic and social implications of pensions, aging and retirement in the Netherlands and Europe.

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