Het delen van langlevenrisico

Average life expectancy has increased considerably over the past decades. When pension funds and insurance companies determine how much capital is needed to provide people with a certain pension income for life, they use estimates for future survival probabilities. Because it is impossible to perfectly predict future survival probabilities, these estimates are updated frequently. If this so-called macro longevity risk within a pension fund is shared uniformly via the funding ratio, all age groups will experience approximately the same percentage change in accrued pension income, which may be positive or negative. But if we estimate the effect for each age group separately, we find that the effect for younger people is much larger than for the elderly. Defined contribution schemes gain in popularity and there is currently discussion about the possibility of having employees build up their pension in personalized accounts. This makes it possible to distinguish between different generations when redistributing this longevity risk. It is then possible, for example, that the longevity risk of the oldest participants is taken over by the active participants. In this paper a number of rules for risk sharing is analyzed. The fund composition appears to have a major influence on the effects of risk sharing rules for different age groups. That is why providers of pension products or the social partners must be allowed to take fund composition into account when deciding how longevity risk will be shared.

Netspar, Network for Studies on Pensions, Aging and Retirement, is a thinktank and knowledge network. Netspar is dedicated to promoting a wider understanding of the economic and social implications of pensions, aging and retirement in the Netherlands and Europe.


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