Forecasting child allowances with international aspects. Identifying and explaining the rise in WKB expenditure

The supplements that the Netherlands pays with respect to the WKB, an income dependent child allowance, have increased sharply from 2010 to 2011. Supplements are paid to families that have both a Dutch and a foreign right on child allowances due to cross border work or living situations. The Dutch entitlement has to be greater for supplements to occur and its size depends on the Dutch benefit level relative to the foreign benefit level.It was found that the influx of Polish immigrants, together with a rise of the Dutch WKB benefit levels in 2011, were major contributors to the increase in WKB expenditure. The projections of future levels of WKB expenditure need to take into account the immigration of East-European workers and changes in the benefit amounts.