Assessing the solvency risk of insurance portfolios via a continuous time cohort model

  • Luca Regis Luca Regis
  • Petar Jevtic Petar Jevtic

The paper describes a model that evaluates the solvency of a port-
folio of assets and liabilities of an insurer subject to longevity risk and financial risks. Liabilities are evaluated at fair-value. Interest-rate risk can affect both assets and liabilities. Longevity risk is described via a continuous-time cohort model. We evaluate the impact of different investment and hedging strategies on the characteristics of the funding ratio of run-off portfolios at different time horizons. Numerical simulations, calibrated to UK historical data, show that systematic longevity risk is particularly important in the long-run and needs to be hedged.
We highlight that portfolio size, investment choices and solvency re-
quirements are deeply interconnected. Natural hedging techniques can
effectively reduce the required solvency buffer when interest-rate risk is perfectly hedged.

Netspar, Network for Studies on Pensions, Aging and Retirement, is a thinktank and knowledge network. Netspar is dedicated to promoting a wider understanding of the economic and social implications of pensions, aging and retirement in the Netherlands and Europe.


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