Mortality probability modeling

In this study, we estimate mortality and survival after hospitalization as a result of the Covid-19 outbreak by age and for different risk groups. Risk groups are distinguished by the presence of chronic diseases, such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Where possible, we make a distinction between workers of different labor sectors (for example, workers in healthcare). These estimates are then used to adjust transition probabilities of existing Markov simulation models. As a starting point, we use a model that we have developed as part of an EU-funded project. This model describes the relationship between the occurrence of chronic diseases, mortality and labor market participation. This model, possibly extended with other risk factors (such as BMI) that are important for Covid-19, allows us to investigate the consequences of an outbreak such as Covid-19 on life expectancy after retirement, in various scenario analyzes.

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