Trends over 23 years in life expectancy in good and in poor physical and cognitive health of 65-74-year-olds in the Netherlands

In light of population aging and the need to contain pension costs, many Western countries are increasing the statutory pension age in parallel with the rise in life expectancy (LE) from age 65. An as yet unanswered question is whether LE from age 65 in good health increases at the same rate as overall LE. The current study provides evidence on 23-year trends in physically and cognitively (un)healthy LE for ages that are relevant for future rises in the statutory pension age, i.e. 65-74 years, for the Netherlands. More precisely, because it is restricted to this age interval, this study concerns the partial LE between ages 65 and 74. Data were obtained from eight waves of the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA), a representative study for the Netherlands, from 1993 to 2016. Partial LE between ages 65 and 74 rose from 8.7 to 9.3 years for men and from 9.3 to 9.5 years for women. Partial LE with mild physical health problems increased for men from 3.3 to 5.4 years and for women from 4.0 to 5.5 years. Partial LE with severe physical health problems remained stable for men at 0.6 years and for women at 1.3 years. Meanwhile, partial LE with good cognitive health rose for men from 7.3 to 8.4 years and for women from 7.8 to 8.7 years. The latter rise appeared to be largely attributable to the rise in educational level. A decrease in physically healthy years is accompanied by an increase in cognitively healthy years. Implications for the feasibility of extending working lives are discussed in this paper.